Nagorno-Karabakh – A Forgotten Dispute in the Heart of Eurasia
Following the coverage of the war in Georgia and more recently rising debates in economic councils across Europe surrounding the issue of gas and oil pipelines, the region between the Black Sea and Caspian Sea has garnered much attention. However, with all eyes on the Ukraine crisis at the moment, one conflict that still smoulders in Eurasia has been forgotten: the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between neighbours Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Armenia might be known to some for the debates arising from the genocide that began in 1915, a genocide which is not recognised by perpetrator Turkey and has led to diplomatic crises in the past. Armenia is influenced highly by Christianity, counted among one of the first countries to adopt the values and beliefs of the faith. According to the Armenian historical narrative, the region has been under Christian-Armenian influence since the Middle ages, but its development has also been affected by Arabic and Islamic influences following Arab occupation. Azerbaijan is often only referred to in regards to its autocratic government, or perhaps only remembered by some Eurovision Song Contest fans.
The Republic Nagorno-Karabakh is a de-facto regime, which declared independence from Azerbaijan in 1991 following the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, the majority of its inhabitants are of Armenian origin. The conflict’s roots date far back in history. After the First World War, former states Democratic Republic of Armenia and Democratic Republic of Azerbaijan claimed ownership of Nagorno-Karabakh, leading to a bloody conflict. The Shusha massacre from 1920 was only one of many atrocities committed by both sides during the Armenian-Azerbaijan war. In 1921 the Soviet Union decided to affiliate the region with Azerbaijan, after absorbing both former states into its own territory.
In 1988 a new war broke out when Armenia demanded renewed autonomy over the region. Severe atrocities were committed on both sides and almost 30,000 people died with hundreds of thousands more being forcefully displaced. It was during this conflict that the Republic declared its independence, but to this day not even Armenia recognises it officially as an independent state.
In 1994 a ceasefire was agreed upon, yet it remains very fragile. Armenian troops still refuse to leave and end occupation of the region and the surrounding lands still belonging to Azerbaijan’s territory, despite the fact that both the United and the European Council recognise the region as part of Azerbaijan.
Not only is the security situation in the region highly affected by the conflict, it additionally has the potential to affect economic stability, particularly for Armenia who suffers from a trade blockade and closed borders to Azerbaijan and Turkey. Armenia remains isolated and the population suffers from poverty and unemployment.
The Minsk-Group, which is organised by the OSCE, tries to mediate between the enemy states but has so far not been very successful. There is no peace agreement and the ceasefire from 1994 has been interrupted regularly. The sabre-rattling continues. In August 2014 new fights erupted in the border region with several soldiers on both sides being wounded and killed. Furthermore, the situation tightened in November when Azerbaijan shot down an Armenian military helicopter, killing three crew members. The Ministry of Defence said the shooting was a pre-emptive move to prevent a supposed attack on an army post in Nagorno-Karabakh.
With continued spoiling of the ceasefire, the conflict has the potential to escalate quickly, triggered further by a steady growth of military expenditures on both sides . Armenia spends almost 4% of its GDP on military expenditures, taking 12th position in a world comparison. Azerbaijan invests even more with 5.2% of its GDP, ranking 5th place.
The conflict seems to be forgotten among many countries but it should not be. At the moment, new generations grow up not knowing which historical narratives are true. Neighbours become strangers and hostilities are growing, creating a powder keg vulnerable to ignition at any time. The conflict has the potential to spread throughout the whole region and will at the very least involve the countries’ allies Russia and Turkey. As natural resources such as gas and oil come to play a major role during the quarrels, the consequences could be drastic not only in the region, but also in Europe and the Middle East.
Photo Credit: Wikipedia
