Trump goes Poland
Champagne bottles were popped by the right-wing, national conservative Polish government, when the White House announced three weeks ago that President Trump would visit Poland prior to attending the G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany (consequently meeting with the Polish government a day prior to the long anticipated encounter between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin).
They had lobbied extensively to convince the Trump administration for the US President to visit Poland during his trip to Europe, and now he will even come before visiting Germany or France. While in the beginning media outside Poland hardly covered the upcoming visit, the outlets in Poland soon began speculations on what the President might say in his public address. By no means the latter is something unusual. His predecessors Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama all gave public speeches during their visits to the country, all of them addressing the impressive transformation and progress Poland and its society had made since the fall of Communism.
And now, Trump will be coming to Warsaw. The right-wing press compares the visit with John F. Kennedy’s infamous address in West Berlin in 1963. The government even moved the long-planned Three Seas Summit as well as the Global Forum, which both were to take place in Wroclaw in Poland’s south-west, to the capital, in order for the President to be able to participate. Within three weeks two events had to be organised from scratch, in a new location. Trump is said to participate in both, meeting with head of states from the involved states, that with the Three Seas, or Intermare, project aim to strengthen the region between the Baltic, Black as well as the Adriatic Sea. The idea is based on long passed times, when Poland predominated the European continent as the Polish-Lithuanian Kingdom, controlling the vast majority of territory between the Baltic and Black Seas. Despite this era having ended over 200 years ago, many especially conservative Poles think back nostalgically to the times of supremacy in Poland. Consequently, the idea of Intermare (initially seen as a new power block within the EU, now more and more focussing on infrastructure projects boosting the economy of the region) is appealing to the PiS-government ruling Poland since 2015.
Aside from gathering with heads of states and bilateral meetings with Polish government officials, Trump will address the public in front of the Uprising Monument at the Krasinski square. The PiS- government assured the White House that there won’t be any protests (unlike what would have awaited Trump in the UK, which caused him to cancel his planned visit there), simply cheering crowds. To follow through, PiS Members of Parliament were called upon to each invite 50 participants, with free transport and accommodation offered.
The Trump visit to Warsaw is seen skeptically in the rest of Europe. The Polish government, which has been clashing with the EU quite heavily due to recent developments in the areas of freedom of press and rule of law, might be celebrating the arrival and visit of the President; other capitals and governments, however, fear that the visit could cause furthering the canyon between Warsaw and the rest of the Union.
Trump’s unpredictability is the issue. No one knows, what he will be saying in his public address. He could focus on NATO, the implementation of last year’s summit outcomes, the 2% that Poland contributes to the alliance, the boots on the ground of American soldiers in the country, and the commitment of the United States to Article 5, seeing he failed to voice the latter during his speech at NATO in May. He could further concentrate on the economic situation, the long history of US-Polish relations. He could, however, also throw a spanner in the works by giving negative statements or comments on the EU and its policies (for example in regards to refugees), and therefore add more fuel to the already bright blazing fire. His remarks could cause the distancing between Warsaw and Brussels (and Berlin and Paris) to become even more severe.
Whether he will mention Russia or the war in Ukraine also remains unclear. While many would want him to give a strong statement, he will unlikely do so the day before the first meeting in person with Putin. But then no one knows, what he will say. And even if he agrees to read a prepared speech, the May meeting at NATO has shown that he can easily go off script.
The last couple of days the main focus yet again was on his tweets that attacked once more CNN, and journalist/moderator Mika Brzezinski, the latter causing also headlines in Polish gazettes, as she is well known as the daughter of the widely respected Polish-American politician Zbigniew Brzezinski, who recently passed away.
Photo Credit: U.S. Air Forces in Europe and Air Forces Africa
