Germany: Pointing towards Jamaica
On Sunday, September 24, 61.5 million Germans took to the urns in 299 different electoral districts, making use of their constitutional right to cast two votes. The first vote determining the direct candidate from the electoral district, while the second vote indicates the preferred party and defines the overall distribution of seats in the German parliament, the Bundestag.
Eventually 76.2% of the eligible voters participated in the election, which is an improvement to the elections in 2013, when 71.5% participated. Particularly, the AfD motivated people to vote that hadn’t voted in the last election (35% of non-voters in 2013 now voted for the AfD).
These are the current official results published by the Federal Election Commissioner:
CDU (Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands, Christian Democratic Union of Germany) and CSU (Christlich-Soziale Union, Christian Social Union) 33%
SPD (Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands, Socialdemocratic Party of Germany) 20.5%
AfD 12.6%
FDP (Freie Demokratische Partei, Free Democratic Party) 10.7%
Die Linke (The Left) 9.2%
Greens (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, Alliance 90/The Greens) 8.9%
Source: ZDF Twitter
With seven parties entering the Bundestag, one could expect a variety of potential coalitions. However, a closer look shows that only two coalitions would achieve the required number of seats to form a majority (355 as the new parliament will have 709 members): a so-called Grand Coalition, which is formed by CDU/CSU and the SPD (393 seats), or a coalition between CDU/CSU, the liberal FDP and the Greens (399 seats), colloquially dubbed as a 'Jamaica Coalition', as the parties colours resemble the Caribbean country’s flag.
A Grand Coalition would mean a continuation of the current government. As I wrote here, Grand Coalitions are anything but healthy for a democracy:
This is usually a time of standstill, where unifying ideas are focused on but controversial debates on clashing policy visions are rare.
In this setting, political reform is almost impossible. Throughout the last few decades, coalition governments have also triggered increased support for smaller parties or movements on the political fringes […] able to attract people dissatisfied with the political elite, particularly the decisions made by the government during the last few years.
Merkel’s main challenger was Martin Schulz, head of SPD. During an interview following the first exit polls, which indicated the historical worst result for the SPD, he clearly ruled out to form another Grand Coalition with Merkel’s CDU and its sister party, the Bavarian CSU. The SPD (and its supporters) has grown increasingly frustrated to perform as junior partner in a coalition, which undisputedly has hurt the party’s image in recent years. Schulz—just like other leading figures of the party—sees the SPD in a leading opposition role, aiming to reinvent the party. It is up to speculation, whether one particular factor triggered Schulz' decision: that if the SPD was to form a coalition with the CDU and CSU to enter government, the AfD would become the opposition leader.
While the role of opposition leader doesn’t exist officially in the Bundestag and doesn’t come with any particular rights, there are some factors that are important: speaking time is decided upon number of members, and the ‘Bundestag budget committee is traditionally headed by someone from the largest opposition party’, a role not to be underestimated. Additionally, the opposition’s main task is to control the government, using tools such as invoking investigative committees and hearings.
If the SPD goes along with the statement, the only other viable option would be the Jamaica Coalition. It would tick the boxes of a couple of historical firsts: the first time three parties form the federal government; the first time the Greens are coalescing with Conservatives and Liberals; and also with both at the same time on a federal level. During the last couple of years, all three parties have started forming coalitions in several different groupings in state parliaments already, including a Jamaica Coalition in the state of Schleswig-Holstein. Another example, which failed however, was the government in the Saarland.
Nevertheless, finding compromise will be a challenge, as especially the Green’s left wing and the more conservative part of the CDU and CSU have quite differing positions, e.g. the fields of security and defence.
Where I personally find it a disgrace and shameful that for the first time since the Second World War, an open right-wing party will enter Germany’s parliament again, the established parties will need to take note that many have voted for the AfD not necessarily because of its agenda but to send a signal of discontent. With increasing support—polls earlier in the year saw the party closer to the 5% hurdle—politicians need to make democracy attractive again by taking citizens seriously, increase transparency in political decisions, develop stronger dialogue with all parts of society, and follow through with their announcements. The AfD is far more than a wake-up call; already in the state of Saxony-Anhalt, a mountainous support forced CDU, SPD and Greens into coalition to prevent the AfD from governing. It shows that debate and compromise for the sake of democracy is possible but also that radical movements can change the design of established democratic governments.
If there is another takeaway from the disturbing results, it should motivate us to make political education compulsory throughout school; and not only in Germany this could help to trigger interest and awareness among younger people, facilitate understanding of political processes, opinion forming and the importance of lessons taken from history. This election should be an admonishing finger to the world that democracy and freedom is not self-understanding anywhere.
Photo Credit: Pixabay user Public Domain Photgraphy
