How the Indian Ocean will become the Center Stage for Tomorrow’s Global Politics
In a world dominated by the United States of America, the most focused upon bodies of water are naturally the ones framing the American continents – the Atlantic and the Pacific Ocean. Both oceans have been the arenas of heavy naval battles during the Second World War and have since seen unprecedented levels of political, cultural, and economic integration. The center stage for tomorrow’s global politics will however be their little brother – the Indian Ocean. In the North, the Indian Ocean is dominated by the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, which are separated by the Indian subcontinent. Further south it is bordered by the East coast of Africa in the West, and stretches all the way down to the West coast of Australia in the East. Four factors make this region a key arena for twenty-first century politics.
First, with China and India rising to great power status, the Indian Ocean is bound to become a stage for future great power clashes. Facilitated by their rapid economic growth, both countries invest heavily in their military capacities, including a modern navy capable of projecting their national interests overseas. Seeing that India has repeatedly labelled the entire Indian Ocean its Exclusive Economic Zone, while China follows what has been labelled a “string of pearls” strategy by setting up ports in friendly states in the region, it seems that it is only a matter of time until both giants get into each other’s way.
Second, the Indian Ocean is bordered by some of the least stable countries in the world, including Pakistan, Myanmar, Yemen and Somalia. In a world in which failed states are perceived to be a major threat to global security, increased interest in the Indian Ocean region by international security regimes is a natural consequence.
Third, the economic rise of Asia is turning the Indian Ocean into the hub of international energy trade. Already today more than half of the world’s oil trade is going from the Middle East and North Africa through the Indian Ocean to destinations including India, China, Japan and South Korea. As the demand for oil that these economic giants have is expected to rise, so too will the density of energy trade in the Indian Ocean. This turns the Indian Ocean into a center stage for economic clashes between Asia’s rising giants, and makes the control over choke points such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca a crucial aspect for any of these states’ energy security strategies.
Finally, the Indian Ocean region is bordered by countries with highly antagonistic ethnic, religious and cultural backgrounds. The struggle between Arabs and Africans on Africa’s west coast, the intra-religious Muslim clashes between Sunnis and Shiites, or the historical antagonism between Indian Hindus and Pakistani Muslims are but a few examples. Some of these struggles have been going on for centuries, and there is little reason to believe that they will vanish any time soon. To the contrary, recent clashes between Sunni and Shiite forces in Yemen indicate that these identity conflicts will continue to produce violence, once again attracting increased attention to the Indian Ocean region as a whole.
For these reasons the Indian Ocean is bound to become the key arena for international politics in the near future. Whether its conflictual dynamics will result in instability and military clashes or give incentives for increased political and economic integration, remains to be seen.
Image Credit: Wikipedia
