A Glimpse of Hope – Cyprus to Reunify?
It seems like it is waiting on the world’s door step. Something that can show the international community, there is still good happening. After the peace agreement between the Colombian government and the FARC rebels, it seems a lot is possible in long-term conflict situations. This week, Geneva has begun hosting the next round of peace- and reunification talks to settle the Cyprus question. Some have said, it is the last chance for the country to solve the conflict once and for all.
The hopes are high, despite the fact that numerous attempts for reunification have failed. The last round of talks in November 2016 had started out promising but terminated at the end of the month without any results. Moreover witnesses spoke of a “toxic climate” between the representatives of the Greek and Turkish Cypriots, Nikos Anastasiades and Mustafa Akinci.
But now, it seems that the crucial points, which caused the intense quarrels last year, namely the territorial realignments, have already been addressed more successfully than ever before. Significant break-throughs in prior meetings this week were seen as requirements for broader talks, which would involve representatives from the former colonial power Great Britain, as well as the security guarantors Greece and Turkey. This seemed to have happened, under the supervision of the UN Special Envoy for the Cyprus question, Espen Barth Eide, as the talks in an enlarged group started off today.
The high-level diplomatic talks are closely monitored in Cyprus – TV is broadcasting live and people are in the streets; both Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots singing and dancing together in Nicosia to show their support for the efforts. Many citizens want to overcome the partition of decades and resume a unified life.
Cyprus has been divided into a southern Greek, and a northern Turkish part since 1974. When Cyprus gained independence from the United Kingdom (UK) in 1960, a series of attacks on the Turkish minority occurred when Greek extremists aimed at the implementation of enosis, the unification of Cyprus with Greece, despite the fact that the Treaty of Guarantee as an annex to the constitution had banned enosis. The majority of the Greek-Cypriots then denied equality to the Turkish-Cypriots, and rather saw them as being eligible to a minority status and minority-connected rights only. Article IV of the Treaty indicated that in a case of violation of the constitution or the independence, security or territorial integrity of Cyprus, the guarantors (Republic of Cyprus, Greece, Turkey and UK) would seek consultations to re-establish the status quo, and if consensus could not be reached, unilateral actions could be taken.
Following the clashes, a ceasefire was agreed upon and the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) was stationed in Cyprus in 1964. The mandate, formulated in Security Council-Resolution 186, asked the forces to prevent a recurrence of the fighting and the return to normal conditions.
During the ten years after the deployment, the first goal of the mandate had been achieved partly since the mission could prevent further deaths but only until the invasion in 1974, although after the achieved ceasefire then this goal can now be defined as being achieved. The latter goal – the return to normal conditions – has obviously not been achieved, as the island has been divided ever since.
In 1974, the Greek Cypriot National Guard/Junta staged a coup d’état and replaced the Makarios-Regime. As it turned out later, a number of warnings regarding a coup had occurred from US, Soviet and Greek journalists (in late 1973, late March and May 1974), and also one of the main organisers, Ioannides, had warned the CIA in Athens of his plan to overthrow Makarios by the use of force. As an immediate reaction towards the coup, the Turkish government demanded withdrawal of the Greek officers or threatened to intervene. Since a real threat of enosis existed, Turkey’s first actions were legitimate due to the Treaty: Due to the fact that the consultations with other guarantors ended without result, Turkey was legitimised to take unilateral actions to re-establish the state of affairs as describe. Turkey did not accept Greece as guarantor anymore after the coup.
As a result on July 20th, 1974, Turkish troops landed on Cypriote shores, officially to re-establish the state of affairs. Unofficially, Turkey was believed to take actions due to geopolitical and -strategic thoughts rather than strong ethical bonds.
As a result, two days later the Greek Junta made room for a new government and SC-Res353 called for immediate ceasefire and negotiations. This led to the first and second Geneva conference, where solution attempts mainly focussed on limiting the controlled areas by Turkish forces and the evacuation of the enclaves. (Turkey was accused of exaggerating the acute danger of the Turkish-Cypriots.) Since the parties could not agree upon a solution, Turkish forces intervened again on the 14th August 1974. This intervention was illegal and not covered or justified by the Treaty of Guarantee.
On August 16th, 1974 a ceasefire was agreed upon and UNFICYP is protecting the buffer zone which has effectively divided the island ever since.
Furthermore, one should not turn a blind eye on the difficulties resulting from the division: Since the Turkish part has not been recognised internationally, legal obstacles and issues in the main economic sector tourism have negative impacts on every-day life (the Northern part is unlike the South not a part of the European Union; the fact the North is not recognised internationally makes it more difficult for interested parties to invest into business sectors simply due to legal and financial uncertainties etc.)
Although lives have been protected ever since, the intervention led to more homeless people and an increase of refugee numbers; the CIA Factbook still lists 208.000 internally displaced persons (IDP).
On the one hand the division ensures security, but 40 years after the intervention and 50 years after the deployment of UNFICYP, the costly presence of external powers is still necessary to maintain it.
The overall goal is to reunite the country and create two federal states. The Turkish Cypriots know that they will probably loose territory, so that IDP can return home. To compensate for that, they aim for more power-sharing rights. The question of territorial realignment is very critical, it more being a territorial trade off.
Additionally, not everyone is supporting the reunification talks. Many parliamentarians are unsupportive of a potential reunification, “mostly on the grounds that no deal would ever properly compensate those who lost property and homes when Turkey invaded in 1974.”
Other critical points are a potential rotating presidency, and security questions: Turkey considers the continuation of the military deployment of some forces as security guarantee for Turkish Cypriots. The Turkish troops made it very clear from the beginning that they would not leave without having the survival of the Turkish-Cypriots secured.
Also all parties involved worringly see Turkish President Erdogan’s possible influence. They fear that he will put pressure on the Turkish-Cypriots in order to achieve own goals and interests, and consequently potentially causing the talks to fail. No one is able to judge his potential involvement, however, it is certain that he is causing headaches across the involved spectrum of diplomats, with some media outlets already calling Cyprus “Erdogan’s Trojan horse”.
"This is the first time that Turkey will have to own up to its own responsibility. It will have to prove whether its public promises to solve the Cyprus conflict will be followed by concrete actions," Anastasiades (the President of the Greek Cypriots) told the German newspaper Die Welt.”
Should the talks in Geneva lead to an agreement, satisfactory to both sides, one last hurdle then needs to be faced: A potential agreement needs to be put to referendum vote on both sides of the UN Buffer Zone. And particularly the case of the agreement negotiated in Colombia has shown last year that the people might think very contrary to pacts agreed on high levels.
In general, as with any peacebuilding process, time and patience will be key.
One Turkish Cypriot’s words, however, show, why there is so much hope among the people of Cyprus, and why this final solution of the conflict would be beneficial to so many: "The future of my grandsons, that is more important than a house. Peace is more important. I don't want my children to live the wars, the troubles that we have gone through. It is much more important to have peace than to move from one house to another."
(A good overview on the background and the aim of the talks now can be found here.)
Photo Credit: FlickR User Forest Wander
