An (A)typical Election - France 2017
Last week, one of the main French newspapers Le Parisien announced it would stop commissioning polls in the run-up to the French presidential election to focus on "on the ground reporting". French media have long been hooked onto opinion polls: in the months leading up to a presidential French election, major national polls dominate headlines almost every day. After opinion polls failed to predict Trump’s win in the election and the outcome of the Brexit referendum, most French political observers said the biggest lesson of the past year is not to place too much trust in the polling. A few weeks ago, whereas the polls had predicted a face-à -face between former President Nicolas Sarkozy and another rival, former Prime Minister, Alain Juppé, Francois Fillon won the primary of the right-wing party Les Republicains and was established, against all expectations, as the centre-right candidate for the election race. As reflected by the surprising lead taken by the tradition-minded former Prime Minister, the upcoming presidential election, which will be held in two rounds in April and May of 2017, will most likely be full of surprises… whether good or bad ones is yet to be seen.
This election is atypical for several reasons. Primarily, because Francois Hollande, the least popular French president since the Second World War, decided that he will not seek re-election. For the first time since the founding of the Fifth Republic in 1958, a French president does not run for a second term in office. Secondly, whoever wins the left-wing primary, the Socialist party's chances to win the election are slim. Manuel Valls, as the former Prime Minister of an unpopular government, will have to decide how much of his record he should to disavow. His most dangerous rivals are also his former colleagues: Arnaud Montebourg, former Minister of Industry and Vincent Peillon, former Minister of Education.
Furthermore, an emerging figure is dangerously threatening the Left's hopes to establish itself as the only barrier to prevent the far-right party, Front National, from accessing the second round of the election. Emmanuel Macron, former minister of Economy chose to detach himself from the Socialists by launching his own political party in April 2016 En Marche! (Forward!). Macron, the new face of French politics, is liberal and portrays himself as an ‘anti-system’ candidate. Even if his programme remains blurry, (he will probably unveil more about it once the left candidate is chosen) his personality gives him the possibility to reach all political sides. If the Socialist party does not manage to mobilise its supporters in the next few weeks, one might expect some of the party officials to rally round Macron. French voters seem to be in the mood to get rid of the veterans of French politics and this could serve Macron – or not.
Indeed, Marine Le Pen, head of the far-right party Front National, boosted by the election win of Donald Trump, also plays the anti-system card. However, unlike Macron, she defends a hard stand on immigration, wants France to leave the Eurozone and advocates for restoring the death penalty. Le Pen also called for a massive reduction in legal immigration in France and for the expulsion of illegal immigrants. Even though the party faces financial difficulties, as it struggles to obtain bank loans to finance its campaign, most polls estimate that it will most likely forward into the second round of the election.
Europe at stake?
This year will mark the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome entering into force. In 1957, it laid the foundations of the modern European Union. Today, the future of the European Union has never been more uncertain. After Brexit, and in the light of the upcoming election, some already start mentioning the possibility of a «Frexit». Surprisingly, the topic is far from being at the heart of the electoral campaign in France.
Throughout the course of its primary, the right-wing party Les Republicains avoided discussing the European Union, even not during the three hours of live debates. As for the candidates to the primary of the left-wing Parti Socialiste, they are divided on the matter. So far, denigration of the EU or simply avoiding the subject seems to have been a trend whereas the topic of the EU was mostly appropriated by Marine Le Pen, which she uses as a scapegoat in her political rise. "French people want less Europe and more France", claims Marine Le Pen. Inspired by Britain's vote to leave the Union, she refers to the EU as a threat to the French nationhood.
François Fillon, despite describing himself as European, is still remembered for having voted against the Maastricht Treaty in 1992. He insists that France is to "remain sovereign in a Europe that respects nations". On immigration, Le Pen presents similar arguments to rival Francois Fillon, who was elected as the Republican candidate on similar promises: "We've got to reduce immigration to its strict minimum ".
At a time when the centre is shifting to the right, and the right is shifting to the centre, the lines are blurred. More than ever, a real debate about the EU is necessary. Europe could be the main dividing point of the campaign. It is therefore crucial that the topic is not hijacked by the Front National.
Photo Credit: FlickR User Martin Abegglen
