Cloudy with Prospects of Sunshine – the Atmosphere of Polish-German Relations
For 25 years, Warsaw and Berlin have shared a ride in the same car, often on rocky and bumpy roads, however mostly agreeing on the route. Since PiS took power, Chancellor Merkel has observed from a distance, rarely spoken out on the developments unlike many EU officials. During the past 14 months of Poland’s administration, however, some decisions took an extreme character, and the Polish-German car seemed to have hit an icy patch with the breaks failing. Time to pull the handbrake! Chancellor Angela Merkel seems to agree that a longer stay in a garage should be prevented and paid Poland a flying visit on Tuesday last week.
Germany and Poland are two countries which not only share a border but also a history of centuries with carrying heavily the dark chapters of World War II. However, recently the German-Polish relationship reached a milestone: 25 years of the good neighbourhood-treaty, signed in June 1991, entered into force January 16, 1992.
Despite the pleasant sounding label, the current atmosphere between Poland and Germany is far from being perfect. Just like typical neighbourhood: most of the time they live peacefully side-by-side, grumble together about annoying municipal regulations, while at other times they complain behind the curtains to their wives about each other. But soon enough, they will go back to chatting over the fence, back to harmony – so one would hope.
After PiS’ victory 2015, expectations of a progressive relationship seemed ill-fated from the beginning. However, politicians tried to ease the situation, for example former President Gauck, who said he was not sure if Poles and Germans were able to uphold their friendship under the new government but that in general the climate seems to be worthy of friendship. He claimed that a bridge appeared that neither of them had probably expected.
Nevertheless, soon Polish and German politicians started clashing. The EU Commission put Poland under supervision; Martin Schulz, former European Parliament president and the Social Democrats’ candidate to face Merkel in the federal elections later this year, even claimed a ‘Putinisation of European politics’. Defence Minister Macierewicz countered he refuses to have Germans criticising and teaching his country about freedom and democracy; literally comparing the critique towards institutional crisis and media reform to German war atrocities. Polish media outlet Wprost added fuel to the fire by portraying Merkel, Juncker and Schulz in Nazi uniforms, who allegedly tried to “control Poland again”, highlighting one issue: the differing assessment of the relationship. In Poland it is rather seen as a ‘normalisation’, while in Germany the expectations grew closer to ‘friendship’.
In November 2014, German ambassador to Poland, Rolf Nickel, stated in an interview that reconciliation had been achieved. Was that so? True, Poland has become a close partner and ally, probably the closest after its pendant in Germany’s west, France. Both relationships were driven by similar motivation (the shared history), and base the foundation of European integration. With the neighbourhood treaty, Germany agreed to help Poland stir through the rough waters of integrating into the Western world; successfully becoming allies in military and economic terms. On political levels not so much. Institutional cooperation or interconnection between political communities is poor to non-existent. Politico.eu claims the reconciliation did not run deep enough, and Germany concentrated its efforts on the liberal elites while ignoring the far right and nationalists of PiS and beyond. The refugee crisis then highlighted the differences between the two, underlining lack of mutual understanding and abilities to discuss.
While former Foreign Minister Sikorski feared German inactivity more than its power, Poland’s political elite could not be further away from this point of view. Though, the tone changed post-Brexit vote: rather than targeting Germany’s politicians, focus was on EU institutions and personnel; PiS leader Kaczynski even stated he would appreciate Merkel’s re-election. PiS knows that with the UK voting leave, Poland lost its main ally in regards to limiting the EU’s powers. Poland needs Germany in its stand against Russia, to protect interests of CEE countries during Brexit negotiations, and currently most importantly, as a pillar of strength in the future of transatlantic relations.
And Germany needs a stable partner in addressing the issues facing Europe due to France’s unknown fate come the presidential elections.
Most commentators draw a dark picture, Bartosz Dudek from DW writes relations are in “free fall”. He blames Germans of having a lack of understanding and showing ignorance towards Poland, adding German critique will cause the proud Polish people to become only more stubborn. Agnieszka Lada, who publishes a German-Polish mood-barometer, provides a little sunshine in the grey atmosphere of the relationship: while indeed the political partnership cooled, relations on economic, social and civil levels are still strong, indicating there might not be a momentum for large-scale changes but rather pragmatic and small projects at grass root levels. The focus on border regions, city partnerships, and targeting rural areas could offer a chance to make small steps forward.
Chancellor Merkel’s visit last week indicated willingness to make things work at last despite different opinions; an exploratory consultation prior to the upcoming EU summits of 2017, mainly the one in March in Rome, where the roadmap for post-Brexit will be discussed. Meetings with Prime Minister Beata Szydlo, President Andrzej Duda, and the highly anticipated get-together with PiS head Jaroslaw Kaczynski passed without major revelations or break-throughs. Merkel touched upon the sour topics of press freedom and rule of law – despite the rocky history of critiquing the Polish government, and Beata Szydlo put the finger in the Nord Stream 2 wound. Both also tried to underline common interests as both are aware of the dependency on each other in order for the EU to survive. Merkel’s visit and bilateral meetings are a hand offered at the beginning of that bridge, which the parting German president had mentioned in the past. Whether PiS will take it to cross the bridge hand-in-hand, towards creating a proper partnership, potentially accepting compromises, and aiming at proper friendship will be seen over the course of this year. However, also the PiS government knows that a walk side-by-side is less dangerous than a car ride, certainly.
This article was published originally by New Eastern Europe, under the title "Poland and Germany: Progress despite expectations". You can find it here.
Photo credit: Pexels
