Quo vadis, EU? - Post-Merkel's Week of Diplomacy
German Chancellor Merkel had a busy week last week – in a unique attempt, she travelled across Europe to discuss different pressing issues with head of states and government leaders prior to the next EU summit in Bratislava on September 16. The next summit will be the first summit of the 27 remaining European Union member states – the United Kingdom will not be present after voting to leave the union in June’s referendum.
Certainly, there are easier tasks than meeting with the European leaders, of whom so many are currently more than critical of the deadlocked institutions, as well as of Angela Merkel’s policies in regards to the refugee crisis.
The week began with acknowledging European values – together with the president of France and the Italian prime minister the core principles of the European spirit were highlighted, and celebrated. The message to be sent was clear:
We are strong and stand together firmly. We have been through a lot but we shall also master the current insecurities and challenges. ‘Together’ is the only answer and solution to our crises.
In a press statement, Merkel announced that the current weeks need to be used to formulate a concrete agenda, which demonstrates the effectiveness and power of the EU. Her diplomatic journey, she described as a phase of listening, understanding, learning-from-each-other, in order to comprehend and develop the EU’s internal balance post-Brexit. She underlined that Germany would benefit from listening to others but denied reproaches she would take over the EU with her initiative this week. Furthermore, she highlighted how important it would be to act together and to act calmly on the future of EU-27. She warned not to resort to blind actionism, as that would inevitably result in making mistakes.
Jan Techau from Carnegie, sees no alternative to Merkel’s initiative, however, warns that it could lead to an image of a broker, which is actually assigned to the EU institutions themselves. However, he is convinced that due the current critical situation, secretly, all states would expect the biggest EU state [=Germany] to lead and provide concepts. He said the gaps between supporters and critics of “more Europe” have never been wider, which is why Merkel is also acting as a bridge builder at the moment, as Germany is often positioned in the middle of extreme demands. Techau sees in Merkel’s strategy a continuation of Helmut Kohl’s attitude: to pay double the amount of attention to the smaller partners in relation to their actual power.
Ivo Mijnssen agrees with this position. He wrote in an opinion piece for NZZ, that Merkel’s week of visiting a variety of EU states was a good choice, as the Germans would be the only ones – due to the paralysis of the EU institutions – to bring forward the EU reform process. Mijnssen especially looks at the states of Central Europe, who have made headlines across the international media by criticising and speaking out against Merkel's policies vehemently. He highlights that the refugee crisis is the only topic where the Visegrad states (Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia) stand together firmly while for example the policy towards Russia is seen very differently across the four states. Mijnssen sees the meeting with Merkel as lost opportunity for the Visegrad group as it could have been the moment for them to demonstrate how they envision solving the refugee crisis. Due to the fact, these states deny any talks in this regard, they could cause the EU to act even more concept less during the next “wave” of refugees, and risking receiving solidarity if a situation might occur where they need it in the future.
After her get-together with the leaders of Italy and France, Merkel continued her journey to meet with the Estonian government, before appointments with the Czech Prime Minister and President.
Estonian Prime Minister Taavi Roivas supported Merkel’s line of argument, stating that Berlin should take a strong and central stand within the EU. He also said that during times of crises and important decisions in his opinion a Europe more resembling Germany would be necessary.
Before Merkel’s visit to the Czech Republic, Spokesperson Seibert announced that European decisions, made by all EU member states, would need to be kept by those states – there could not be an independent national decision making on common made decisions (he was referring to the re-location of refugees). According to a Prague newspaper, Merkel has significantly lost popularity among the Czech people (only 18%); even Putin is more popular. Commentator Martin Fendrych, however, criticised the anti-Merkel-atmosphere, and wrote that she is not the devil but “our” (=Czech) essential ally, which the people eventually need to understand.
Other Czech media called for Merkel to be straight-forward and encourage pro-European forces in the Czech Republic to act, in order not to loose a democratic, pro-Atlantic, pro-European Czech Republic, as well as proposing better clarification on facts, for example a long interview with the Czech TV, which would make it hard for Czech politicians to spread their “simple” facts.
Subsequently to the visit to the Czech Republic, Merkel arrived in Warsaw on Friday last week to gather with the heads of governments of the Visegrad group, after a bilateral meeting with the Polish Prime Minister Beata Szydlo. This day was said to be the hardest for her during the week of international mediation.
The Visegrad states are Merkel’s strongest opponents in regards to her refugee policies. They also are very sceptical about more integration and are strong advocates of a thorough remodelling of the EU’s architecture.
In a press conference after the meeting between Beata Szydlo and Angela Merkel, Szydlo stated that the Polish government would be interested in finding common solutions, however, actions would need to be taken outside of Europe’s borders, e.g. increasing the means for humanitarian and developing aid [the Polish household for 2017 however, does not show any significant increase in that regard]. Merkel once again highlighted that the topic of security should play a central role, external and internal security, and that more could be done in regards to common defence.
As the German and Polish governments have different opinions in almost all regards when it comes to the future of the EU, and solving the refugee crisis, they agree on the necessity to improve the EU’s competitiveness in the world, on ambitions that Europe should be among the leading regions in the world in regards to science, technology, workforce etc. Szydlo also underlined that the states should concentrate on what unites them rather than what divides them. She further stated that the main task would be to keep the EU as a whole and strong community together. Furthermore the EU would be the solution to the problems and not the problem, however, thorough reforms would be necessary. Merkel was more reserved and reminded that Europe had a humanitarian responsibility to fulfil, while at the same time to put illegal immigration on hold.
Karolina Boronska-Hryniewiecka from PISM stated in an interview with PAP that the disapproval of the EU’s refugee policy has united the Visegrad states recently more than ever before. Despite the protests in Prague during Merkel’s visit, Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka sees the Czech Republic as most disposed country to Germany out of the four Visegrad states. It could potentially create a bridge of communication to the other members.
Other media outlets assessed the situation between the Visegrad states and Germany more critical: the disagreement on refugee quota is seen as “historic rift”, caused by differing world views that developed during the 20th century (i.e. Central Europeans not being able to understand Germany’s widespread pacifism following the Iraq war is being compared to the non-understanding of Merkel’s refugee policy). Furthermore the Central European states are urged to remember their own history, and to focus on solidarity instead of isolating and nationalism. Especially Poland is addressed in this regard to – with such a high support of the catholic church – remember the meaning of compassion, humanity and sympathy. On the other hand, the media agrees that the German population is still supportive of helping humans in need, however, they are still waiting for a concrete plan to be announced how to manage so.
During the Visegrad meeting with Merkel, the states remained strictly bound to their positions regarding the refugee crisis, Victor Orban arguing that social and migration policy would be part of the individual politics of states. Beata Szydlo sees the key in a stronger protection of the external borders of the EU, and an increase of border protection; furthermore she wants more money to be sent to crises areas to avoid the development of migration streams altogether. Merkel agreed that the topic of the refugee crisis will be essential for the future of the union, however, she didn’t put emphasis on the reproach of a fair re-distribution. She also stated more could be done in regards to controlling the borders, in regards to the fight against terrorism, and establishment of a European “entry and departure” data base.
After Merkel met with the prime ministers of the Visegrad states the German government released a press statement. It was underlined that Merkel sees a necessity to listen to each other in several different formats, and that the people of Europe would only accept Europe if a promise of prosperity was delivered to them. As there was a lot to do in the field of job markets, the EU would need to reconsider which areas would need deeper cooperation and increased efforts. She demanded to especially target the youth, and to wake again their enthusiasm regarding Europe.
Following the demands of the Visegrad states, especially Hungary and the Czech Republic to finalise a EU army, Merkel only acknowledged that common security would be of interest, and more common actions could be done, however she did not address a potential EU army.
After the dissatisfying meeting with the Visegrad group, Merkel first welcomed the leaders of Finland, Sweden, Denmark, and the Netherlands before concluding her week of diplomacy with a meeting between her and the heads of government of Austria, Croatia, Bulgaria, and Slovenia.
On Sunday, Angela Merkel was quoted to have said that the refusal of some EU members to accept Muslim refugees is “unacceptable”; this highlighting that the future of the EU will not be able to avoid solving the refugee crisis together.
New numbers now show that Germany is the biggest contributor to the EU: in 2015, they paid 14 bln € more than they received back from Brussels, whereas Poland was the biggest addressee of funds: more than 9 bln € more than they paid into the EU funds.
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Concrete results on the outcome of the meetings have not really been made public. If there had been an unexpected breakthrough, it can be expected, however, that it would have been announced. Therefore, it is more likely that hardly any progress was made. Actual steps/moves will probably be announced/achieved in Bratislava. Although Merkel has already dampened high expectations as she stated, Bratislava is not to be a summit for decision making but more a time for setting the agenda. However, Merkel also showed excitement for the summit in Bratislava as during the meetings in Brussels the “feeling of Europe” and the closeness to “real life” had been absent, according to her. The summit will aim at setting a long-term agenda, and deliver month-by-month the proposed goals, as she further stated.
Quo vadis, EU? - We do not know yet. It is, however certain, the European Union will move towards the future. Just the design of that future remains blurred.
Photo Credit: Flickr User Ian Burt
